Marvel Studios has hit another bump in what’s proven to be an increasingly uneven post-Endgame era. Despite positive reviews, solid audience scores, and a cast stacked with fan-favourite characters, Thunderbolts has fallen well short of expectations at the box office.

The film’s disappointing financial run adds to the larger conversation surrounding the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which has shifted from near-guaranteed dominance to a more unpredictable, franchise-by-franchise balancing act.

And while the numbers tell one story, the situation surrounding Thunderbolts may reflect several larger challenges currently facing both Marvel and its parent company, Disney: franchise fatigue, audience burnout, shifting viewing habits, and the immense pressure of maintaining one of Hollywood’s most complicated connected universes.

The Numbers: Budget vs Box Office

According to a Variety report, Thunderbolts cost around $US180 million to produce, with marketing reportedly adding close to another $US100 million. All in, the film carried an estimated total cost of roughly $US280 million.

However, reaching profitability requires considerably more than simply matching production and marketing costs. Since studios typically keep only around 50% of global box office revenue (less in certain international markets), a film’s break-even point is generally much higher than its total spend. In the case of Thunderbolts, industry analysts estimated it would need to earn approximately $US425 million worldwide to recoup its costs.

As of the time of writing, the film has earned approximately $US378.1 million worldwide (as per Box Office Mojo), leaving a significant gap between revenue and costs. Based on current global rankings from The Numbers, Thunderbolts sits as the 33rd highest-grossing film out of the MCU’s 36 theatrical releases. Only Captain America: The First Avenger, The Incredible Hulk, and The Marvels have earned less at the worldwide box office.

That ranking may shift slightly by the time its full theatrical run wraps up internationally, with Thunderbolts potentially overtaking Black Widow ($US379M) and Eternals ($US401M). Still, even with some late-game additions, it will remain planted firmly in the franchise’s lower tier.

Positive Reviews Didn’t Translate to Ticket Sales

Despite its financial underperformance, Thunderbolts has received some of the stronger responses for a recent MCU release. On Rotten Tomatoes, the film currently holds an 88% critics score and a 93% audience score, suggesting that many viewers and reviewers responded well to its more grounded approach.

Among those praising the film was… me! In my review, I called Thunderbolts “one of the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s more compelling recent outings — a team-up movie with bruised hearts, emotional depth, and just enough bite.”

Marvel’s Waning Consistency, Audience Burnout, and Disney’s Broader Struggles

While Marvel remains the highest-grossing franchise in history, its post-Endgame track record has become far less predictable. Prior to the pandemic, most MCU titles easily passed $US500 million worldwide. Now, those numbers are increasingly elusive, particularly for titles built around secondary characters.

“Marvel’s calculus has changed,” Fandango’s Shawn Robbins told Variety. “We’re in a new era where not every Marvel movie is going to hit $US1 billion.”

There may be a number of factors contributing to this shifting dynamic. After years of dominating both cinemas and streaming platforms, Marvel’s interconnected storytelling has become increasingly dense. Alongside the films, Disney+ series like Echo, Agatha All Along, and Daredevil: Born Again have added more characters and narratives to follow, creating what some casual audiences may see as a complicated web of homework just to stay up to date.

Thunderbolts may also have struggled to fully separate itself from familiar territory. While the film carried a darker tone, some viewed it as Marvel’s answer to Suicide Squad — a morally ambiguous team-up concept that perhaps felt overly familiar to certain viewers. And even at DC, this particular formula has proven difficult to fully land at the box office: David Ayer’s 2016 Suicide Squad received a mixed reception despite strong initial turnout, while James Gunn’s 2021 The Suicide Squad earned critical praise but struggled financially during its hybrid theatrical and streaming release. At least with both these examples, it’s clear that ensemble anti-hero stories don’t automatically guarantee broad commercial success

Adding to the picture is Disney’s own recent PR and financial turbulence, which may also be playing some role in broader audience hesitancy. Projects like Snow White have drawn heavy criticism both online and in the press, generating negative headlines that potentially spill into the company’s overall brand perception — including its tentpole Marvel offerings.

Budget Adjustments Couldn’t Save It

Marvel did attempt to lower financial risk with Thunderbolts. Its $US180 million production budget came in lower than typical MCU tentpoles, with marketing also kept more modest. But rising costs industry-wide meant even those adjustments weren’t enough to ensure profitability.

“Studios are working hard to bring the high-end budgets down,” Franchise Entertainment Research’s David A. Gross told Variety. “We’re going to see less over-spending than the years after the pandemic.”

Still Positioned in Marvel’s Long Game

Even with disappointing returns, Thunderbolts feeds directly into Marvel’s larger plans. Post-credit scenes connect to upcoming major instalments like Avengers: Doomsday and The Fantastic Four: First Steps, with characters expected to return for larger crossovers — still the MCU’s most reliable box office drivers.

Recent hits like Spider-Man: No Way Home ($US1.9 billion) and Deadpool & Wolverine ($US1.33 billion) highlight that when the stakes feel significant enough, audiences still show up.

The Road Ahead: Fewer Projects, Bigger Swings

Thunderbolts reflects Marvel’s broader recalibration. With fewer projects moving forward, tighter budgets, and a sharper focus on marquee properties, Marvel is clearly being more selective. Long-delayed titles like Blade remain stalled as the studio works to stabilise both creative direction and financial performance.

But while Thunderbolts didn’t launch a new branch of the franchise, Marvel’s next phase carries no shortage of high-profile swings. The Fantastic Four arrives in cinemas this July, followed by Spider-Man: Brand New Day in July 2026. And in December 2026, the first of the Russo brothers’ two new Avengers films, Avengers: Doomsday — which brings Robert Downey Jr. back to the MCU in a villainous role — is set to hit cinemas. The franchise’s next true box office tests are already lined up.